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Petroleum Market Commentary - April 21, 2014

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Prices Higher - Inventory Higher - Speculation Higher

DIESEL:

During the week ending April 18th, the spot month diesel futures price increased by 7.50 cents per gallon (+2.56%) while the deferred months increased by 3 to 7 cents making the forward pricing curve higher and more negatively sloped. The one year forward price ended the week at a 10.77 cent (3.58%) discount to the spot price, from a discount of 7.45 cents (2.54%) and the end of the previous week.

The change in level and slope of the diesel forward pricing curve indicates higher demand expectations and lower supplies with respect to demand. Demand includes speculative demand. When the forward pricing curve decreases in slope (more negative or less positive), this usually indicates tighter inventories and is generally positive for price. When slope increases, this usually indicates more plentiful inventories and is negative for price.

Below is a one week chart of the diesel forward pricing curve as of April 18th.

GASOLINE:

During the week ending April 18th, the spot month gasoline futures price increased by 4.03 cents per gallon (+1.34%) while the deferred months increased by 1 to 5 cents per gallon making the forward pricing curve higher and more negatively sloped. The one year forward price ended the week at a 26.63 cent (9.56%) discount to the spot price, from a discount of 24.86 cents (8.99%) and the end of the previous week.

The change in level and shape of this forward pricing curve indicates higher demand expectations and lower inventory levels with respect to supply and demand.

Below is a one week chart of the gasoline forward pricing curve as of April 18th.

ANALYSIS:

The US dollar was higher on the week which is negative for price. Inventories on the week were higher which is negative for price. The stock market, as a proxy for demand expectations, was higher which is positive for price. Speculation was higher on the week which is positive for price. US domestic crude production was higher on the week which is negative for price.

Below are charts of three year crude production and avg. vs. five year demand as of April 11th.


Weekly US petroleum demand increased by 0.67% during the week ending April 11th. Demand is down 1.70% vs. one-year ago and demand is currently 2.54% below the five year average.

The attractiveness of making new hedges decreased on the week as prices and speculation were higher for the second week in a row. Higher speculation causes hedging to be less attractive since it would involve more competition with speculators for long positions which is disadvantageous for the long-hedger. As prices move and as time passes, the advisability of hedging will change. As further price opportunities present themselves, hedging will become more attractive.

Below are the one year charts of spot diesel and spot gasoline futures prices as of April 18th.


MARKET FACTORS:

: :  Inventories increasing by 8.58 million barrels while inventories were expected to increase by 0.50 million barrels on the week. The five year average inventory increased by 1.26 million barrels. Inventories increased vs. the five year average and vs. expectations.

: :  Tensions in Ukraine continue to elevate speculation levels which is supportive of price.

: :  Domestic petroleum production reached another 26 year record high level and is showing no signs of slowing. This creates more supply, more global spare capacity, and mitigates upward price risk.

: :  Global economic factors including:

: :  US domestic economic factors including:

: :  The US Stock market increasing by 2.71% on the week which is positive for economic and petroleum demand expectations and prices.

: :  The US Dollar increasing by 0.50% on the week which is positive for petroleum price. Commodities are used as a hedge against inflation and against a falling dollar. A stronger dollar reduces the relative demand for commodities for this purpose and prices decrease accordingly. Conversely, a weaker dollar increases relative demand for commodities and prices increase.

INVENTORIES:

During the week ended April 11th, total petroleum inventories increased by 8.58 million barrels vs. a five year average increase of 1.26 million barrels and vs. an expected increase of 0.50 million barrels. Inventories increased by 7.32 million barrels vs. the five year average. Total inventories stand at 716.3 million barrels, up from 707.8 million barrels at the end of the previous week. The five year average inventory is 722.0 million barrels, up from 720.7 million barrels at the end of the previous week.

Current inventories are 0.78% smaller than the five year average up from -1.80% at the end of the previous week. Inventories versus the five year average on a percentage basis continue to be negative. The five year average inventory has grown over the past five years and it has become increasingly difficult for current inventories to surpass the five year average. Current inventories will be closer to the five year average and not as high compared to it. Also, increased production in the U.S. over the past three years diminishes the need for larger inventories since production is geographically closer to consumption and the risk of disruption and disruption due to geopolitical events is lower.

Below is a one year chart of average petroleum inventory as of April 11th.

SPECULATION:

As of April 15th, the net speculative long position in petroleum futures was 435,141,000 barrels up 31,424,000 barrels (+7.78%) from the previous week. Speculation increased for the third week in a row and represents 60.75% of domestic inventories. Speculation is 33.01% above its one year moving average and is 2.77% below the 52-week high set on March 4th. The corresponding spot month heating oil futures price on April 15th was 298.70 cents per gallon, up 5.26 cents from 293.44 cents per gallon during the previous week.

Diesel fuel price and size of speculative net long position in petroleum are 65.05% correlated over the past 52 weeks (a decrease on the week) indicating that, on a statistical basis over the past year 42.32% of the price movement of diesel fuel is explained by changes in levels of speculation. A linear regression analysis over the past 52 weeks shows that if speculation were zero and the market forces causing speculation evaporated, that the spot month diesel futures price would be 272.50 cents per gallon or 26.20 cents per gallon less than current prices. The analysis would indicate that about 8.77% of current price is attributable to speculation and its underlying market rationale. The "would be" price was up by about 2.5 cents on the week.

The net speculative long position has been variable over the past year ranging between 203 million and 448 million barrels with an average of about 327 million barrels, which up about 4 million barrels on the week.

The graph below is three year history of speculative position levels as of April 15th.

Linwood Capital, LLC is an institutional fuel hedging management, advisory, and consulting firm. Linwood creates and manages customized fuel hedging programs for institutional consumers of petroleum, natural gas, and electricity on a nationwide basis.