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Prices Higher - Inventory Lower - Speculation Lower
During the week ending June 7th, the spot month heating oil futures price increased by 11.17 cents per gallon (+4.02%) while the deferred months increased by 7 to 11 cents per gallon making the forward pricing curve higher and negatively sloped. The one year forward price ended the week at a 0.59 cent (0.20%) discount to the spot price, from a premium of 1.48 cents (0.53%) and the end of the previous week.
The change in level and slope of this forward pricing curve indicates higher demand expectations and lower supplies with respect to demand. Demand includes speculative demand which decreased on the week and can be volatile. When the forward pricing curve decreases in slope (more negative or less positive), this usually indicates tighter inventories and is generally positive for price. When slope increases, this usually indicates more plentiful inventories and is negative for price
During the week ending June 7th, the spot month gasoline futures price increased by 11.66 cents per gallon (+4.23%) while the deferred months increased by 9 to 12 cents per gallon making the forward pricing curve higher and more negatively sloped. The one year forward price ended the week at an 11.86 cent (4.31%) discount to the spot price, from a discount of 10.66 cents (3.99%) and the end of the previous week.
The change in level and shape of this forward pricing curve indicates higher demand expectations and lower inventory levels with respect to supply and demand.
The US dollar was sharply lower on the week which is positive for price. Inventories on the week were lower than expectations and remain above historical averages. This is positive for price. The stock market, as a proxy for demand expectations, was higher which is positive for price. Speculation was lower on the week which is negative of price. US domestic crude production continues to be strong and increased on the week which is negative for price. Geopolitical risk continues to be a background factor that is supportive of price.
Weekly US petroleum demand increased by 2.70% during the week ending May 31st. Demand is up by 0.25% vs. one year ago and demand is currently 2.38% below the five year average.
The attractiveness of making new hedges decreased on the week given the higher price environment. Speculation was lower on the week indicating that new hedges would require less competition with market speculation. As prices move and as time passes, the advisability of hedging will change. As further price opportunities present themselves, hedging will become more attractive. Diesel futures prices in the $2.80 - $2.90 have made hedging more advantageous depending on the goals of hedger.
Below is a one year chart of spot diesel futures prices as of June 7th.
Below is a one year chart of spot gasoline futures prices, the hedging mechanism for gasoline, as of June 7th.
Factors affecting the market on the period were:
During the week ended May 31st, total petroleum inventories decreased by 4.02 million barrels vs. a five year average decrease of 0.44 million barrels and vs. an expected increase of 1.40 million barrels. Inventories decreased by 3.58 million barrels vs. the five year average. Total inventories stand at 733.4 million barrels, down from 737.4 million barrels at the end of the previous week. The five year average inventory is 701.7 million barrels, down from 702.1 million barrels at the end of the previous week.
Current inventories are 4.52% larger than the five year average down from +5.03% at the end of the previous week. Inventories versus the five year average on a percentage basis remain positive. This helps to mitigate the effects of supply disruption and decreases price volatility.
As of June 4th, the net speculative long position in petroleum futures was 225,223,000 barrels down 15,489,000 barrels (-6.43%) from the previous week. The level of speculation decreased for the second week in a row and represents 30.71% of domestic inventories. Speculation is 9.48% below its one year moving average and is 37.41% below the 52 week high level. Speculative levels are just below the average of the past year's range. The corresponding spot month heating oil futures price on June 4th was 286.49 cents per gallon, down 4.17 cents from 290.66 cents per gallon during the previous week.
Diesel fuel price and size of speculative net long position in petroleum are 78.10% correlated over the past 52 weeks (an increase on the week) indicating that, on a statistical basis over the past year 61.00% of the price movement of heating oil is explained by changes in levels of speculation. This statistical relationship has become weaker over the past several months but remains significant. A linear regression analysis over the past 52 weeks shows that if speculation were zero and the market forces causing speculation evaporated, that the spot month heating oil futures price would be 236.18 cents per gallon or 50.30 cents per gallon less than current prices. The analysis would indicate that about 17.56% of current price is attributable to speculation and its underlying market rationale. The "would be" price was up about 2.5 cents on the week.
The net speculative long position has been variable over the past year ranging between 171 million and 360 million barrels with an average of about 249 million barrels, which was an increase of about 1 million barrels on the week.
The graph below is three year history of speculative position levels.
Linwood Capital, LLC is an institutional fuel hedging management and consulting firm. Linwood creates and manages customized fuel hedging programs primarily for public clients on a nationwide basis.