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Prices Higher - Inventory Steady - Speculation High
During the week ending August 2nd, the spot month diesel futures price increased by 5.83 cents per gallon (+1.93%) while the deferred months increased by 4 to 6 cents per gallon making the forward pricing curve higher and relatively unchanged in slope. The one year forward price ended the week at an 11.19 cent (3.64%) discount to the spot price, from a discount of 8.62 cents (2.86%) and the end of the previous week.
The change in level and slope of this forward pricing curve indicates higher demand expectations and steady supplies with respect to demand. Demand includes speculative demand which decreased slightly from record highs on the week and can be volatile. When the forward pricing curve decreases in slope (more negative or less positive), this usually indicates tighter inventories and is generally positive for price. When slope increases, this usually indicates more plentiful inventories and is negative for price.
During the week ending August 2nd, the spot month gasoline futures price decreased by 0.86 cents per gallon (-0.29%) while the deferred months were higher by 0 to 5 cents per gallon. This made the forward pricing curve generally higher and less negatively sloped. The one year forward price ended the week at a 23.87 cent (8.66%) discount to the spot price, from a discount of 29.35 cents (10.67%) and the end of the previous week.
The change in level and shape of this forward pricing curve indicates steady demand expectations and higher inventory levels with respect to supply and demand.
The US dollar was higher on the week which is negative for price. Inventories on the week were higher which is negative for price. The stock market, as a proxy for demand expectations, was higher which is positive for price. Speculation was lower on the week which is negative for price. US domestic crude production continues to be strong and decreased on the week which is positive for price. Geopolitical risk, especially in Egypt and Syria continues to be a background factor that is supportive of price.
Weekly US petroleum demand decreased by 0.62% during the week ending July 26th. Demand is up 3.72% vs. one year ago and demand is currently 0.17% above the five year average.
The attractiveness of making new hedges diminished on the week with prices higher and speculation levels remaining very high. As prices move and as time passes, the advisability of hedging will change. As price opportunities present themselves, hedging will become more attractive.
Below is a one year chart of spot diesel futures prices as of August 2nd.
Below is a one year chart of spot gasoline futures prices, the hedging mechanism for gasoline, as of August 2nd.
Factors affecting the market on the period were:
During the week ended July 26th, total petroleum inventories increased by 0.74 million barrels vs. a five year average decrease of 1.48 million barrels and vs. an expected decrease of 3.70 million barrels. Inventories increased by 2.21 million barrels vs. the five year average. Total inventories stand at 714.1 million barrels, up from 713.4 million barrels at the end of the previous week. The five year average inventory is 708.4 million barrels, down from 709.9 million barrels at the end of the previous week.
Current inventories are 0.80% larger than the five year average up from +0.49% at the end of the previous week. Inventories versus the five year average on a percentage basis remain positive. This helps to mitigate the effects of supply disruption and decreases price volatility.
As of July 30th, the net speculative long position in petroleum futures was 423,669,000 barrels down 5,241,000 barrels (-1.22%) from the previous week. The level of speculation decreased for the first time in five weeks after hitting an all-time high level the previous week. This level of speculation represents 59.33% of domestic inventories. Speculation is 56.82% above its one year moving average and is 1.22% below the 52-week high. The corresponding spot month heating oil futures price on July 30th was 300.67 cents per gallon, down 6.26 cents from 306.93 cents per gallon during the previous week.
Diesel fuel price and size of speculative net long position in petroleum are 50.56% correlated over the past 52 weeks (a decrease on the week) indicating that, on a statistical basis over the past year 25.56% of the price movement of diesel fuel is explained by changes in levels of speculation. This statistical relationship continues to become weaker as other fundamental factors become more important price drivers. A linear regression analysis over the past 52 weeks shows that if speculation were zero and the market forces causing speculation evaporated, that the spot month diesel futures price would be 273.71 cents per gallon or 29.95 cents per gallon less than current prices. The analysis would indicate that about 8.97% of current price is attributable to speculation and its underlying market rationale. The "would be" price was up about 7.0 cents on the week.
The net speculative long position has been variable over the past year ranging between 181 million and 429 million barrels with an average of about 270 million barrels, which was an increase of about 4 million barrels on the week.
The graph below is three year history of speculative position levels.
Linwood Capital, LLC is an institutional fuel hedging management and consulting firm. Linwood creates and manages customized fuel hedging programs primarily for public clients on a nationwide basis.